Canadian Home Prices 2025 Surge Amid Rising Sales and Flat Listings

​After months of sluggish activity, Canadian home sales are on the rise, sparking a big question: Is the Canadian housing market moving toward a sellers’ market? With transactions climbing, listings staying flat, and interest rates showing signs of relief, buyers and sellers are watching closely as the real estate market enters a new phase.

Canada’s Housing Market: Is the Shift Real?

The Canadian housing market has been through a long period of uncertainty, but recent data shows signs of life. According to national reports, home sales climbed 3.8% in July compared to June. Year-over-year activity is also higher, with sales up 6.6% compared to last July. This upward trend comes at a time when new listings barely moved, rising only 0.1% month-over-month.

With the real estate market slowly rebounding, the question everyone is asking: Are we heading toward a sellers’ market?

The housing market is currently balanced. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) stood at 52% in July, which is considered neutral. A ratio above 60% typically signals sellers’ market conditions, while a ratio below 40% favors buyers.

Market Snapshot Table

Why Are Sales Rising?

1. Pent-Up Demand Returning

For much of early 2025, uncertainty around global trade and domestic economic conditions kept many buyers on the sidelines. That began to change in spring, and now, four straight months of sales gains show momentum is back. Since March, home sales have jumped 11.2% cumulatively—a clear sign of renewed buyer confidence.

2. Bank of Canada Rate Cuts and Stability

In recent announcements, the Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.75%. Inflation is easing, and there’s a growing expectation that rate cuts could come later in the year. Even the stability of rates has improved affordability compared to last year, when borrowing costs were at their peak. If the Bank of Canada rates move toward easing, the housing market rebound could accelerate further.

3. Tight Supply Meeting Higher Demand

The real estate market hasn’t seen a surge in listings, which means inventory is not keeping pace with rising sales. While national active listings are 10.1% higher than last year, that’s only a moderate increase and not enough to offset demand. If listings remain flat and sales continue climbing, housing market conditions could shift toward sellers sooner than expected.

Regional Highlights – Not All Markets Move the Same Way

On the surface, Canada’s housing market appears stable, but a few major regions are moving at a faster pace.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

In June, home sales across Toronto jumped 8.1% from May, hitting their best level in five months. Prices stayed slightly below last year, but that hasn’t slowed buyers. The number of active buyers is growing much quicker than new listings, which is starting to put some pressure on inventory levels across the GTA.

Metro Vancouver

Sales activity here remains below the 10-year average, and prices have been flat to slightly lower. With more balanced inventory, Vancouver hasn’t seen the same pace of rebound as the GTA.

Calgary and the Prairies

Markets like Calgary are still relatively strong, but supply is finally catching up. Detached home inventory has increased, which could slow price growth.

Quebec and Atlantic Canada

Several markets in Quebec and the East Coast are experiencing tighter conditions, with lower inventory levels and rising sales. These areas could shift toward seller’s market conditions sooner than the national average.

Regional Table Snapshot

Are We Heading for a Sellers’ Market?

Not quite yet. Here’s why:

• Months of Inventoryat4.4is still above the 3.6 threshold CREA associates with a seller’s market. 

• The sales-to-listenings ratiois52%, and it is comfortably in a balanced territory.
  

• Prices are steady, not spiking across the board. 

However, if sales continue to outpace new listings and rate cuts materialize, the market could tighten significantly by early next year. If these patterns persist, some experts predict a possible seller's market in 2026.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For buyers, this may be the best window before conditions tip in favor of sellers. While competition is rising, the market hasn’t reached peak pressure yet. Rates have stayed steady, which gives buyers a bit of breathing room when planning a mortgage. There are still enough homes on the market, nothing like the shortage we saw during the pandemic peak.

For sellers, waiting could work out if things pick up next year. That depends on interest rates and how the economy holds up. If you’re planning to sell a bungalow or a family home, keep an eye on what’s happening in your area. Some markets change faster than the country overall.

Bottom Line

The housing market in Canada is waking up again. Sales are increasing, listings haven’t changed, and there’s more confidence about rates. Right now, it’s balanced. But if demand keeps climbing and the Bank of Canada starts cutting rates, sellers could have the upper hand soon.

For those searching Canadian homes for sale, this might be the time to act—before the upward trend turns into whole sellers’ territory.

FAQs

1. Are Canadian home sales increasing?

Yes, sales have been rising for four straight months, showing a rebound in market activity.

2. Is Canada in a seller’s market?

Not yet. The market is balanced, but could tilt to sellers if demand grows and rates drop.

3. What role do interest rates play?

Stable rates help affordability. If the Bank of Canada cuts rates, buying activity may surge further.

4. Should buyers act now or wait?

This may be a good time for buyers before conditions tighten and competition increases.

5. Are prices going up?

Prices are mostly stable right now, but could rise if inventory stays low and demand keeps building.